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 Post subject: Re: Bob's Weekly Progress
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2009 8:01 pm 
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Posts: 962
Location: Florida
I'm on my 5th consecutive AF day without trying, which is the longest stretch of consecutive AF days I've had since early January of this year. I want to see how long this will last without a craving appearing. If a desire does not appear after this coming week, I want to try consecutive single unit days the following week to see if I have that much control now. Anyway, a potential AF week is coming up, but if not, I'll take my Naltrexone and have something to drink. No big deal. TSM is great! There is no fear of failure. Once the extinction is gone, that next drink has no alcohol reinforcement effect, if we continue taking our Naltrexone before we drink. The only effect we'll have is to further extinguish our desire for alcohol.

:D Bob :D

Attachment:
TSM_Wk22.jpg

_________________
Code:
Pre-TSM~54u/Wk
Wk1-52:40,42,39,28,33,33,43,40,36,30,34,30,30║30,38,13,25,4,22,12,6,9,5,9,3,5║6,6,5,4,9,6,0,9,2,2,5,4,4║3,4,5,3,4,2,6,2,6,4,8,2,2u
W53-91: 4, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4,17, 0, 0, 0║ 3, 0, 3, 0,3, 0, 2,0,0,0,0,0,0║0,0,0,2,0,2,0,0,3,0,0,2,0u
"Cured" @ Week 21 (5 Months),         Current Week: 97  (23rd Month)


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 Post subject: Re: Bob's Weekly Progress
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2009 10:56 pm 
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Posts: 872
I just DO NOT get this cute graph. Did not get mine - have no idea where it is now. But appreciate the fact it follows something of a downward trend?? Especially if you consider yourself "cured", Bob. So glad for you. But kinda iffy about the graphs too...just don't follow the logic of a downward line when everything else is all over the place...

(I left this mssg open for several hours, BTW) Just curious about the lines and how real/significant they are for those of us who fluctuate a couple of drinks every week & not seeing real changes -

XO

_________________
Began TSM 2/09 ave 35 - 50 units/wk
Months 6 - 12 @ 100mgs
2/10 Dropped to 50mgs; units same
4/10 stopped NAL & started BAC thru River
6/10 up to 120 mgs BAC w/ MAJOR SEs
7/10 titrating off BAC
8/10 starting Topamax w/ Dr.


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 Post subject: Re: Bob's Weekly Progress
PostPosted: Mon Aug 17, 2009 6:40 am 
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Joined: Sun Mar 15, 2009 7:40 pm
Posts: 962
Location: Florida
houtx wrote:
I just DO NOT get this cute graph. Did not get mine - have no idea where it is now. But appreciate the fact it follows something of a downward trend?? Especially if you consider yourself "cured", Bob. So glad for you. But kinda iffy about the graphs too...just don't follow the logic of a downward line when everything else is all over the place...
Yes, my numbers are all over the place, but there is a general trend is downward.

I didn't just make up the red line. I used Excel to perform a curve fit on my real numbers and Excel came up with the curve, including the formula. The R² value that is referred to in the graph is what is called a correlation coefficient. A low correlation coefficient is generally considered to be within 0.1 to 0.3. A medium correlation coefficient is between 0.3 to 0.5. A large correlation is over 0.5. My current R² value is 0.55, or just beyond medium and into the large correlation region, but not that much. What this interpretation means is that the calculated exponential decay curve fit is fairly good, but has a some data points that do not fit the curve well. If my numbers had followed a perfect exponential decay curve, the R² value would be 1.0. But it is not because I plateaued for a while and had a burst at the end of the plateau before my units declined dramatically. Even after they started to decline, it was a roller coaster ride down to where I am now, drinking moderately 5 out of the last 7 weeks and drinking moderately the past 3 consecutive weeks.

The calculated curve is obviously not a perfect fit, but it illustrates the downward trend. It also cannot be used to ppredict what the next week will bring. However I do look at what it "should be" when I'm in a particular week and I use that value as a not-to-exceed target since at this stage of the treatment it is easy for me to do. The amount of control I have now over drinking now is something I never dreamed of having ever again. I may as well make good use of it.

I hope this explains the graph a bit. The red line does not fit very well but it's a good approximation of where I have been and where I am going.

Bob

_________________
Code:
Pre-TSM~54u/Wk
Wk1-52:40,42,39,28,33,33,43,40,36,30,34,30,30║30,38,13,25,4,22,12,6,9,5,9,3,5║6,6,5,4,9,6,0,9,2,2,5,4,4║3,4,5,3,4,2,6,2,6,4,8,2,2u
W53-91: 4, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4,17, 0, 0, 0║ 3, 0, 3, 0,3, 0, 2,0,0,0,0,0,0║0,0,0,2,0,2,0,0,3,0,0,2,0u
"Cured" @ Week 21 (5 Months),         Current Week: 97  (23rd Month)


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 Post subject: Re: Bob's Weekly Progress
PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 7:13 pm 
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Joined: Sun Mar 15, 2009 7:40 pm
Posts: 962
Location: Florida
After 7 consecutive effortless dry days, I felt anxiety building up within me. Even though I have kicked this addiction, my underlying anxiety and hypomanic personality remain the same. They are the root cause of my self-medicating with alcohol in the first place. At least since my diagnosis, I know ways to treat these maladies, but no medication is perfect and our thoughts sometimes return to our old tried and true friend in a bottle. That happened on Thursday when I drank for anxiolytic purposes and I despised every drink. I washed out my mouth after each drink it was so bad. I didn't want to arrive here with a hatred for the beverage, but that's where I am now. The drinks worked as intended to relax and unwind me, but in the past couple of days I went to my prescribed medications instead and they work too. So, I learned something this week, use prescribed medications for my maladies and keep the drinking for times when I actually will enjoy it or for occasional social situations.

This week's cute graph:
Attachment:
TSM_Wk23.jpg

Bob

_________________
Code:
Pre-TSM~54u/Wk
Wk1-52:40,42,39,28,33,33,43,40,36,30,34,30,30║30,38,13,25,4,22,12,6,9,5,9,3,5║6,6,5,4,9,6,0,9,2,2,5,4,4║3,4,5,3,4,2,6,2,6,4,8,2,2u
W53-91: 4, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4,17, 0, 0, 0║ 3, 0, 3, 0,3, 0, 2,0,0,0,0,0,0║0,0,0,2,0,2,0,0,3,0,0,2,0u
"Cured" @ Week 21 (5 Months),         Current Week: 97  (23rd Month)


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 Post subject: Re: Bob's Weekly Progress
PostPosted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 6:17 pm 
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Joined: Sun Mar 15, 2009 7:40 pm
Posts: 962
Location: Florida
An average week, but I learned something Thursday. Even "the cured" can slip up, if we're not vigilant.

I drank too much Thursday night and had a hangover the next day. So even though my units are low for the week. I overdid it on Thursday because I was overconfident. I hadn't considered that even the unaddicted can get drunk from time to time. Just because we are taking Naltrexone does not mean that we are immune to human imperfections and misjudgments. I was home that night and didn't go anywhere, but my wife noticed my condition and was concerned that I was slipping back into old habits. I have been assuring her since then it was likely just a one time occurrence due to my overconfidence. Anyway, I have had no cravings since that night, so I have not been able to show her everything is still OK. I am certainly not going to drink just to illustrate to her that I still have control. I will wait until a day when I feel like drinking, take my Naltrexone and exercise self-control. It's a shame that SR warned us about this and I ignored it.

Here's my week 24 graph:
Attachment:
TSM_Wk24.jpg
:D Bob :D

_________________
Code:
Pre-TSM~54u/Wk
Wk1-52:40,42,39,28,33,33,43,40,36,30,34,30,30║30,38,13,25,4,22,12,6,9,5,9,3,5║6,6,5,4,9,6,0,9,2,2,5,4,4║3,4,5,3,4,2,6,2,6,4,8,2,2u
W53-91: 4, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4,17, 0, 0, 0║ 3, 0, 3, 0,3, 0, 2,0,0,0,0,0,0║0,0,0,2,0,2,0,0,3,0,0,2,0u
"Cured" @ Week 21 (5 Months),         Current Week: 97  (23rd Month)


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 Post subject: Re: Bob's Weekly Progress
PostPosted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 9:22 pm 
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Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2009 12:54 pm
Posts: 536
Location: Oregon, USA
bob3d wrote:
An average week, but I learned something Thursday. Even "the cured" can slip up, if we're not vigilant.

I drank too much Thursday night and had a hangover the next day. So even though my units are low for the week. I overdid it on Thursday because I was overconfident. I hadn't considered that even the unaddicted can get drunk from time to time.


Bob,

I've had the same thing happen a couple times. I was caulking it up to still some remnants of my old binging habits.

SpringerRider made an interesting observation lately about continuing to dance with the beast after one is cured. I recall him saying something like "I woke up one morning and asked myself, what the hell are you doing???"

Let's face it, we are all really good at consuming alcohol. While you and I may not crave it much anymore, we still know how to put it away if we really want to -- old habits.

Your wife reacted very much like mine did when I over did it.

Q

_________________
Started TSM: February 2009 Cured: August 2009

Restart TSM: July 2012 (65 units/week)

Weekly Progress:
Units: 45, 41, 44, 53, 42, 45, 41, 42, 40, 48, 39, 27, 12, 30, 45, 35, 45, 50, 48, 50, 35, 46, 44, 56, 52, 45


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 Post subject: Re: Bob's Weekly Progress
PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2009 7:40 pm 
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Joined: Sun Mar 15, 2009 7:40 pm
Posts: 962
Location: Florida
An easy week. No cravings. Felt like having a few beers Tuesday, but not since then. The desire on Tuesday to have some beer was not a craving. It was a take it or leave it moment. With Naltrexone in hand, I cannot get re-addicted, so I may as well enjoy them. If it wasn't for Tuesday, I would have had nothing for a dozen days, I think.

The graph is beginning to look more like a traditional decay curve, other than that hump from weeks 7 through 15. A few more months of this and that hump will start looking inconsequential. Now it just stands out like a sore thumb.

Bob
Attachment:
TSM_Wk25.jpg

_________________
Code:
Pre-TSM~54u/Wk
Wk1-52:40,42,39,28,33,33,43,40,36,30,34,30,30║30,38,13,25,4,22,12,6,9,5,9,3,5║6,6,5,4,9,6,0,9,2,2,5,4,4║3,4,5,3,4,2,6,2,6,4,8,2,2u
W53-91: 4, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4,17, 0, 0, 0║ 3, 0, 3, 0,3, 0, 2,0,0,0,0,0,0║0,0,0,2,0,2,0,0,3,0,0,2,0u
"Cured" @ Week 21 (5 Months),         Current Week: 97  (23rd Month)


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 Post subject: Re: Bob's Weekly Progress
PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2009 8:07 pm 
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Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 8:39 pm
Posts: 872
Amazing - so happy for you!

_________________
Began TSM 2/09 ave 35 - 50 units/wk
Months 6 - 12 @ 100mgs
2/10 Dropped to 50mgs; units same
4/10 stopped NAL & started BAC thru River
6/10 up to 120 mgs BAC w/ MAJOR SEs
7/10 titrating off BAC
8/10 starting Topamax w/ Dr.


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 Post subject: Re: Bob's Weekly Progress
PostPosted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 6:42 pm 
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Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2009 11:07 am
Posts: 426
Location: France
The sore thumb looks good to me but the rest greatly better .
Now the question I have concerns the exact moment serial AF's end , I think it right to say for you Bob you often go 5 and 6 days and then drink .
Now consider the cases of say the people who drink after three years they too drink
I.5 times a week on average . Now why do you think this is ?
Is it the alcohol deprivation effect ? Is it the ADE in your case that has greatly weekened but pitches up at weeks end ? Is it the same ADE for people say three years later do you imagine ? Has not extinction fully set in for them yet ?
Or is it dancing with the beast through habit that makes them different from those who go permanentally abstinent .
I guesss there are two questions really one for you where you're at now _ is it the ADE ? . I understand answering from your own experience counts here and more your ideas for when you think of others at three years but either way I'd be glad to
see what you think .
And I ask as I've just done 6 days AF . Despite the holiday period I've noticed in around and after it a progression from managing four then five and finally six AF's with relative ease and absence of craving , not every week adding on but that has happened these last weeks . But then when I see people stick at drinking 1.5 times a week after three years in terms of frequency nothing much has changed and if it's still ADE then they wouldn't be extinguished would they ?

_________________
Pre tsm 60/100 uk /wk

On tsm since feb 2009 .
3 glasses of wine a night , most nights (5/7)

Once a NALcoholic always a NALcoholic


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 Post subject: Re: Bob's Weekly Progress
PostPosted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 3:13 pm 
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Posts: 962
Location: Florida
Elfern wrote:
...I think it right to say for you Bob you often go 5 and 6 days and then drink .
Now consider the cases of say the people who drink after three years they too drink
I.5 times a week on average . Now why do you think this is ?
Is it the alcohol deprivation effect ? Is it the ADE in your case that has greatly weekened but pitches up at weeks end ? Is it the same ADE for people say three years later do you imagine ? Has not extinction fully set in for them yet?
Or is it dancing with the beast through habit that makes them different from those who go permanentally abstinent .
I guesss there are two questions really one for you where you're at now _ is it the ADE ? . I understand answering from your own experience counts here and more your ideas for when you think of others at three years but either way I'd be glad to see what you think...
Yes, I go for about a week now without alcohol, sometimes longer, sometimes shorter; the day of the week doesn't seem to matter. I have not reasoned out the why, yet. It could be ADE, but it doesn't seem likely if the Naltrexone blockade is in effect each time I imbibe. It can't be a habit, since it is never on the same night or even the same time.

I am unsure this has answered your question.

Bob

_________________
Code:
Pre-TSM~54u/Wk
Wk1-52:40,42,39,28,33,33,43,40,36,30,34,30,30║30,38,13,25,4,22,12,6,9,5,9,3,5║6,6,5,4,9,6,0,9,2,2,5,4,4║3,4,5,3,4,2,6,2,6,4,8,2,2u
W53-91: 4, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4,17, 0, 0, 0║ 3, 0, 3, 0,3, 0, 2,0,0,0,0,0,0║0,0,0,2,0,2,0,0,3,0,0,2,0u
"Cured" @ Week 21 (5 Months),         Current Week: 97  (23rd Month)


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