Joined: Sun Mar 15, 2009 7:40 pm Posts: 962 Location: Florida
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houtx wrote: I just DO NOT get this cute graph. Did not get mine - have no idea where it is now. But appreciate the fact it follows something of a downward trend?? Especially if you consider yourself "cured", Bob. So glad for you. But kinda iffy about the graphs too...just don't follow the logic of a downward line when everything else is all over the place... Yes, my numbers are all over the place, but there is a general trend is downward. I didn't just make up the red line. I used Excel to perform a curve fit on my real numbers and Excel came up with the curve, including the formula. The R² value that is referred to in the graph is what is called a correlation coefficient. A low correlation coefficient is generally considered to be within 0.1 to 0.3. A medium correlation coefficient is between 0.3 to 0.5. A large correlation is over 0.5. My current R² value is 0.55, or just beyond medium and into the large correlation region, but not that much. What this interpretation means is that the calculated exponential decay curve fit is fairly good, but has a some data points that do not fit the curve well. If my numbers had followed a perfect exponential decay curve, the R² value would be 1.0. But it is not because I plateaued for a while and had a burst at the end of the plateau before my units declined dramatically. Even after they started to decline, it was a roller coaster ride down to where I am now, drinking moderately 5 out of the last 7 weeks and drinking moderately the past 3 consecutive weeks. The calculated curve is obviously not a perfect fit, but it illustrates the downward trend. It also cannot be used to ppredict what the next week will bring. However I do look at what it "should be" when I'm in a particular week and I use that value as a not-to-exceed target since at this stage of the treatment it is easy for me to do. The amount of control I have now over drinking now is something I never dreamed of having ever again. I may as well make good use of it. I hope this explains the graph a bit. The red line does not fit very well but it's a good approximation of where I have been and where I am going. Bob
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Code: Pre-TSM~54u/Wk Wk1-52:40,42,39,28,33,33,43,40,36,30,34,30,30║30,38,13,25,4,22,12,6,9,5,9,3,5║6,6,5,4,9,6,0,9,2,2,5,4,4║3,4,5,3,4,2,6,2,6,4,8,2,2u W53-91: 4, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4,17, 0, 0, 0║ 3, 0, 3, 0,3, 0, 2,0,0,0,0,0,0║0,0,0,2,0,2,0,0,3,0,0,2,0u
"Cured" @ Week 21 (5 Months), Current Week: 97 (23rd Month)
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