Hey folks,

I'm curious about what this cohort thinks about tsm results here so far.

Does anyone have an objection into trying to figure out why the current stats may seem less than expected? (Realistically I never expect miracles).

Crudely dissecting the current data:

Out of 280 members of this board, a mere 10 have declared themselves "cured". Are they still in that blissful state? We don't know since we haven't regularly heard from them all lately. Those that have reported back declare that they are. It's nice to know, but doesn't provide the larger framework tsm could use.

Even if all were blissfully cured, ten out of 280 isn't nearly a 80-88% success rate. This experiment began over 10 months ago. Granted, many members began later and obviously couldn't expect for the method to be effective yet. Nonetheless, many collective months of effort among almost 300 subjects have still to bear fruit.

Why?

Possible reasons: perhaps still not enough time; inaccurate self reporting; inadequate compliance; a host of other possibilities--other thoughts that I would be delighted to entertain.

My gut reaction:

We're a highly self-selected group, not a random population that a scientific survey depends on.

Does that in itself skew the results?

Trying and succeeding is obviously reinforcing. Trying and failing, and trying again and again... Get my train of thought?

Does anyone have any insights of how to break out of the box? Dr. Eskapa's extinction graphs don't seem to be well reflected in this cohort's experiences.

I'm hopeful and confident that the clues to success lie just beneath the surface. As for me, and I wonder if I speak for many here; we may need additional reinforcement that this works.

We're obviously all seeking clues, and if the "cured" ones can offer any insight, that would be the most valuable of all.

Please do not take this as a negative post. I'm just trying to move the process along in a positive manner to benefit us all.

Best to all,

Mike

Hi Mike,

Just a brief reply from me as I'm off to bed, but I read on another thread that out of all those members here around 70 (?) had started progress threads. Goodness only knows what percentage of those carried through TSM to the letter AND continued to post here to the conclusion. I think I read one post tonight where someone had felt their partner (at least partially, but to a significant extent) cured but didn't declare it as such, and then said that they wouldn't be posting here much anymore...

Just some thoughts, all the best with the evaluation - it would be fascinating to see the real figures

8

First of all, your numbers are way off the mark. 280 people have registered here -- a small fraction of them are actively trying TSM. Many came in, took a look, and were never heard from again. Many others are simply "lurkers" contemplating TSM. Many others are friends, family members or people just researching TSM. A very small fraction of the 280 members are actually trying TSM and reporting their results.

Second of all, "cure" is a very subjective term. I don't think it's a black and white issue, quite frankly, when people continue to consume at drastically reduced levels and with greatly reduced cravings.

I've read every post on this board. The more relevant question to me is, "Is TSM helping people reduce their cravings and consumption?" My unscientific response is that yes, it is, for more than 80% here of the people who are tracking their results and discussing their progress. There are a tiny handful of people here reporting absolutely zero progress under TSM. I believe that unfortunate group could be counted on one hand, but at most, definitely on both hands.

I think the issue that you have correctly identified is the three to four month time frame for the cure in the book. I sound like a broken record, but that applied to people who "only drank 35 per week." Almost none of us here drink that relatively little amount. Also, I'd be curious to know the ages and drinking history of those same people cured in three to four months -- I highly doubt they have been hardcore drinkers for thirty or forty years, like many of us here, who drink more than a hundred a week, not 35. And I remain highly confident in my unproven theory that the longer and harder you have been drinking, the longer it will take to extinguish your addiction. (This theory is not addressed in Eskapa's book and is my non-medical opinion, based upon what I know about classical conditioning.)

I am basically "cured." When I don't drink I don't think about it. When I do drink, I drink more than a "normal person" but at a tiny fraction of what I used to have and with no blackouts or hangovers. But I, like many others here I'm sure, don't want to say, "I'm cured!" prematurely, only to go out in a few weeks and have a big bender.

If you are just caught up in numbers, "Helpful Spouse's" wife is now cured; for all intents and purposes, you could add me to the list. But I do think tracking hardcore statistics to something as complex as this issue is highly misleading, at best.

Hi Mike,

You have raised some interesting questions and made some good points.

First of all, regarding your statement that the 'experiment' has been running for 10 months, shouldn't that be 8 months (i.e. Feb - Oct 2009)?

Secondly, 60% of those that have joined this community have posted 5 times or less. Eighty-eight members have never posted. So, the number of participants in this 'experiment' throughout the last 8 (10?) months has been just over 100. Of these, approximately one half have reported their progress with TSM.

From this, it is clear that we are a small (but important!) group. Perhaps, we need more members on board? Here's another statistic - during the month of September, there were 31 new members, which is pretty much one new member per day.

Given these data, and the duration for which the 'experiment' has been running, I would have thought that the figure of 12 members on the 'cured' list was quite a respectable figure. What a shame that I'm not one of them!

V.

How ironic that one of the unlucky few who is seeing no improvement on TSM could state so much better and more succinctly what I meant to say.

Thanks V.

PS

In just the last few minutes I have read quotes from the likes of MissKris and Xajere who have basically stated that their lives have been completely turned around for the better and how TSM is proving to be a life-saver for them. However, you will not see them on the "cured list." Which entirely proves my point: simply trying to reduce the success of this method to nothing more than a list of people describing themselves as "cured" is entirely misleading and is completely unrepresentative of the tremendous success most people on this board are achieving using TSM.

Morning all. Can I be a little miss sunshine here? Even thought some members have not yet reached their goals, and are becoming discouraged because what they want is seemingly out of their immediate reach....what wonderful "progress" for them that they are actively tracking their consumption, that they are getting daily support from people who know exactly what they are going through, that they mostly have treatment teams working for them and with them, that they understand what is happening to their brains with TSM, that they have actually set goals instead of wallowing! So many good things - so it's taking longer, so it's harder than for others, so we want success now, so we may have to seek a slightly different tweak for "difficult cases" - all of these things are progress!!!

There is also the fact that in the trial setting the subject were being monitored and evaluated by a team of professionals. Observing the experiment changes the experiment. I believe in that setting along w/ the relatively few units per week makes it a little different. We are doing it w/o the help of pros because, frankly, they are not available or open to try.
I have had remarkable success. If I were to just stay at the level I am at, compared w/ my past I am kinda cured. Not to the point of normal people but well beyond what my normal was.

I agree with all of the responses made here so far.

If you want to talk about hard numbers this one is a little dirty, but I don't think there's a chance in hell this result could come about by placebo effect or psychosomatic effect in a population of alcoholics that "drink as much as they want to drink...whenever they want." :

Great job, LoOp. This is the correct analysis, as opposed to some subjective declaration of the nebulous cure. This huge reduction should tell even most skeptical person THAT TSM WORKS AND WORKS WELL, for the vast majority who try it. However, it seems it's going to take a lot longer than the 3 to 4 months outlined in the book for many, if not most of us.

And for those seeking more positive news, I received a PM today from two long-time members who are on the cusp of a cure. I'll let them speak for themselves but expect to hear from them shortly.