Phoenix, I am in the same boat as you are - starting TSM to treat my alcoholism. One big attraction for me is that TSM should work, or not, even if its users have questions or doubts. After all, the pill I take for my hypertension works or not whether I believe it does.

From a practical standpoint, how long should I persist if there is no change in 3 months? The hope that an effect may suddenly kick in after that is contrary to my meager understanding of medication and extinction effects.

I don't mean to discourage you or anyone else, and I realize that these forums are mostly for moral support purposes.

I will back off my questions and comments, esp. as a newbie, since as in all support communities (including AA) there is a natural tendency to resent doubters.

Cheers.

Bob,

Thanks for posting the graphs. It appeals to the math geek in me. Plus, I think it clearly demonstrates how this works gradually and not overnight and keeps me plugging along. What I love is that your solution seems permanent. This is what I am hoping for.

Take care, BTDT

I won't make any new friends here, but the science nerd in me forces me to point out that Bob's results show a quick, and more importantly an exponential response, to starting TSM. The half-life is 3 months in his results.

That is what should occur qualitatively if TSM works. It is not a matter of wanting, or aiming for this result. If wanting or hoping is the essence, then it is little different from non-scientifically based programs.

To repeat, his alcohol intake dropped by half in 3 months. TSM clearly worked for him from the start.

The lesson is not to slowly plod along because you have faith. In fact, Bob's results are exactly the opposite - you see results fast.

In most medical models, if you try a medication or approach for several months and it doesn't work, then your doctor and you try something else. That happens for hypertension, cholesterol, whatever. There is no moral failings (as in 12 -step programs) if TSM doesn't work. Give TSM a reasonable trial - say 3 months. If you don't see results, try something else.

Some of the posters here are approaching TSM as if it were AA. TSM is supposed to work as a *medical*, not religious treatment. If someone continues with TSM and drinks exactly the same 6 months later, then the paradigm is no different than AA : the desperate hope that tomorrow, tomorrow he will be sober - with no realistic chance.

I feel that it is necessary to address some of these recent posts on my thread because they raise some good questions and issues.
Thanks.

We covered this subject last year on some thread somewhere on this forum, but there's so much information that has accumulated here and I don't expect people to read the entire forum to find there answer. I didn't even look for it. Anyway, here is the graph of my first almost 4 months of TSM:
Notice the the correlation coefficient (R squared) is 0.006, which in statistical terms is no correlation at all with an exponential decay. What if I had given up at 3 months? There was no evidence that TSM was working for me at all, other than a slight decrease of less than 20% that was anything but exponential. Plus I didn't even believe it would work. But I had made a personal commitment to 9 months of treatment prior to throwing in the towel. I am glad I made that commitment! My drinking dropped significantly in week 16, went back up, then down and "roller-coastered down to a somewhat stable plateau in month 6. A year later and I don't drink or want to drink.
I understand completely. My daily data when plotted in the first few months showed apparently super-imposed extinction curves beginning at different times
How do you know what is a reasonable amount of time? Eskapa's claim of 3 - 4 months is wrong in my opinion based on the anecdotal reports here in this uncontrolled biased study that is this website, and based on my own experience and also seeing someone cured after about a whole year I think it was!
This ain't AA. Express your opinion. Your opinion is worth as much as mine. I am just presenting evidence that it does work on a lot of people, certainly a lot more than 12-stepping and there is no faith healing involved. It is a medical cure for a medical condition.

Bob

First of all, you are not a "nerd", you are a "geek"... big difference (in the positive direction).

Look at the first 15 weeks in the graph from my previous post which I intended to send last night, but I fell asleep and never posted it. There is no 3 month half-life or anything remotely resembling an exponential decay response. Just a slight pseudo-linear decline if you include week 0, which is an estimate of pre-TSM drinking levels. The actual recorded numbers begin for week 1. So, when we show the first almost 4 months from weeks 1 through 15 we see this:
A very slight decline and a still statistically uncorrelated correlation coefficient, although oddly a higher value than if "week zero" is included.

The actual numbers show a 16% decrease in 15 weeks, not a 50% decrease in 12 weeks. Hardly a classic extinction pattern.

Not to belabor the point, but I did not have fast results. When the changes significantly occurred it started in week 16 and I declared myself cured in week 21, when I reached moderate drinking levels without effort. In retrospect, the real cure declaration should have been at month 6, when drinking stabilized at a nominal 24 drinks per month.

I respectfully disagree. I recommend a 9 month trial. If you see no results, then TSM does not work for you.

I agree with these statements. TSM is not faith based, it is a medical treatment that alters mental behavior. Faith will not affect the outcome of this treatment. If after a significant amount of time TSM has not worked, then it will never work.

The point I want to drive home is that Eskapa is wrong. 3 months is not the typical cure time. 5 to 6 months appears to be more typical. The decay curve is not purely exponential. It is complicated by the honeymoon effect and the extinction burst(s) as well as the extinction of multiple triggers that may span months of time. Rats don't have multiple triggers, humans do.

There are statistical outliers. We have some here who were cured in 3 months with a classic exponential decay just like the book said. They are a minority. At the other end of the spectrum, there is someone with almost a year with no significant response, then suddenly the cure set in.

In summary, I enjoy the discussion with you. I am not hiding any of my data. It is there for all to analyze. My experience appears to be relatively typical of most here on the forum, other than I still post here (to my wife's disapproval). And I'll say it again... This is not a 12-step program like AA. Your opinion matters just as much as mine. You are not "my enemy that must be silenced". The facts and analysis speak for itself.

Bob

bob,
thank you so much, for answering this question so accurately and completely. i saw this question, to paraphrase, does anyone get cured that has not seen a decrease in units by 3 months?, and was very anxious to know the answer, since it applies to me and my progress.
so, i spent an absolutely silly number of hours yesterday reading old posts trying to confirm that there are folks that after months of no decrease in units went on to dramatic reduction or cure. man, there is a lot of information here, and so many stories, touching, inspiring, and occasionally sad.

what i found is that almost everyone that recorded units had some decrease from early on. the one exception seemed to be minneapolisnick, who after month 1, returned to very close to prior levels for 3 months and then dropped sharply.
also, without actual numbers, there is bentsm. quoting his post in month 5,

"I drank a lot for months on T.S.M. Sometimes as many as 15 beers a night. Now I drink two to three 12 oz 4.7%alc beers per night"

not being a math person, when i reviewed those early few months numbers for so many members, i was making the same assumptions that jamesCT had, and thought that a slight decrease early on was really significant and indicated a continuous trend throughout the treatment process. thanks for setting us straight.

my new mantra, Don't overthink it! NAL +AL + PATIENCE=CURE

path

bob,thanks so much for continuing to post..That is very generous of u to continue to inspire us who still strive to kill this addiction..JamesCT,wow dude!! I agree with alot of what u say..I don't think you are making any enemies..But just as u say,a cure does not rely on faith or belief..Neither does it rely on whether one is making friends or not..I personally do not like eggheads and geeks..They bore me..I am an emotional type who wheres his heart on his sleeve..But thats me..And there are plenty of people who do not like that..The bottom line for me is,alcoholism is not at all about personality or intelligence..Just like breathing..Assholes as well as saints breath..Geniuses as well as morons are alcohol addicts..If someone is drowning,does it really matter if he believes in lifeguards?? So yeh,If this thing works it should work whether I believe it or not..It should also work whether I understand it or not..Myself,after reading around this board,Im gonna give it a year..That seems more realistic considering the amount of al I drank for as many years as I did..I hope you stick around more than 3 months as I am sure we could all benefit from your scientific knowledge..And who knows,Maybe you could make a real friend or two..I am gonna officially rename u mr.Spock..Hahaha.Have a good night buddy...Goodman

Thanks for the replies, especially to Bob for correcting my misunderstanding of his early results and going into detail about his data.

3. "as in all support communities (including AA) there is a natural tendency to resent doubters."

I'm addressing these three quotes above, one at a time:

1. wrong. you don't necessarily see results fast. and "the lesson is" don't tell everybody what the lesson is, unless you know some sort of lesson. and nobody is encouraging plodding along out of blind faith. TSM has failed for tons of people, and many post about trying Bac, Topa, etc... (see houtx)

2.Nobody I've seen here has ever approached TSM as if it were AA, save for the desire to deal with a drinking problem. There are endless pages of AA bashing if you search. I've partaken happily in the AA bashing myself...basically every chance I get.

3. again....What's with ascribing all these attributes of AA to this board? are you TRYING to bait people? do you somehow think you are the only one here who questions TSM? there is no "natural tendency to resent doubters" here. none. In fact, most have been doubters at one time or another. I was a huge doubter at first, and I'm doubting now. The main thing I like about this board is that people are free to doubt and free to report if TSM doesn't work for them. That's what made me feel like it was legit at first. Try talking about TSM in a 12 step recovery forum. They'll lock you out. I don't know where you get the assumption that there is some sort of faith healing or proselytizing going on here but I must admit it kinda pisses me off when you make these assumptions and post them as generalizations when I haven't seen a single incidence of AA brainwashing.

the lesson here is: It's cool that you're into the science, and that can be helpful, but it seems as though you assume you are the only one who's not under some crazy impression that faith in TSM is a pre-requisite to extinction. no faith required here. We all understand that. simple. pill. booze. extinction. so easy a caveman can do it.